Pierre Poilievre New Leader of the Conservative Party, Winning Landslide Victory

On Saturday evening, before a rapturous crowd of 2,000 members of the Conservative Party faithful assembled at the Shaw Convention Centre in downtown Ottawa, Pierre Poilievre, the 43-year-old Member of Parliament for Carleton, was announced as the Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada. 

Photo courtesy of Stewart Kiff, who attended the leadership announcement in Ottawa.  

Snapshot of CPC Results: 

A total of 437,854 members cast ballots in the CPC leadership contest election – the largest number of votes in any Canadian leadership contest ever held.  

Poilievre won on the first ballot with 22,993.42 points, winning all provinces and territories including Ontario and Quebec. He received 68.15% of the points available, based on the CPC’s weighted points system giving equal weight to 338 ridings. 

Poilievre won 70% of all of the ballots cast across the country and won the most votes in every province and territory. Poilievre won the most votes in 330 of the country’s 338 ridings, coming second in only 2 Ontario ridings and 6 Quebec ridings.  

“Divisive Race” and “Fractured Party” Allegations a Red Herring 

Much of the media coverage over the course of the prolonged leadership campaign focused on the alleged rift between “radical” and “moderate” conservatives, with some even suggesting a break-up of the Party co-founded by the Rt. Hon Stephen Harper and the Hon. Peter MacKay, or even the creation of a new “right-of-centre” political party. The overwhelming win of Pierre Poilievre has put to rest such narratives, as the leadership results disclosed no such rifts, along either ideological or geographic lines.  

Poilievre won every single province and territory and won 330 out of 338 ridings. Graphic courtesy of iPolitics.  

A Unifying Campaign Message Leading to a Unifying Result 

Contrary to previous leadership campaigns (in 2017 and 2020), hot-button social issues in this leadership campaign played a secondary, if not marginal role. Ontario MP Leslyn Lewis was the standard-bearer for social conservatives in the race and was hoping to build on her success in the 2020 leadership campaign (where at one point she led the popular vote amongst all candidates). This time around, however, Lewis obtained an underwhelming 9.69% of all available points.  

According to Stewart Kiff, “Historically, social conservatives represent anywhere upwards of 30-35% of the CPC base. Either the social conservative base was watered down by hundreds of thousands of new membership signups, or more likely, social conservatives decided that Poilievre was the best placed to be their champion, respect their place in the Party, and win the next election.”  

“Either way, Pierre’s central campaign themes – cost of living, rising inflation, the housing crisis, an out-of-touch leadership class, government being the servant and not master of the people – won over the overwhelming majority of the Party base. It was a campaign based on a populist economic message – not social or cultural ones. His victory transcends constituencies within the Party.” 

— Stewart Kiff 

Kiff adds,

“Instead of following factions of the Party base, he led. The whole campaign was about his ideas. And now, he leads with an unimpeachably strong mandate. He received a higher percentage of the overall votes than even Stephen Harper did in 2004.”  

History of CPC Leadership Races:

Harper (2004)
Scheer (2017)
O'Toole (2020)
Poilievre (2022) 

Poilievre Wastes No Time Announcing New Leadership Team 

Days after winning the leadership, Poilievre announced a new House leadership team. In a break with past tradition, he announced not one but two deputy leaders: Edmonton MP Tim Uppal and GTA MP Melissa Lantsman. Having a visible minority MP and an LGBT Should this be 2SLGBTQ+. Whatever you decide is the right terminology, change to the same acronym in French MP anchoring the new Leader sends a clear message: that the Poilievre Conservatives will take no lessons from the Liberal Party on diversity — and are ready to fight the next election on the economic themes that underpinned Poilievre’s successful leadership campaign.  

What Comes Next?  

According to former Conservative MP Bernard Trottier: “Pierre Poilievre won the CPC leadership by a landslide on the first ballot, with 68% of first-choice votes compared to his nearest rival, Jean Charest, who had only 16%. He also had broad support across all regions of the country, and with that he solidifies his mandate to lead the party into the next federal election.”  

“The big question going forward is who will define who he is, and what he stands for, in the minds of voters who are not currently Conservative party members. As the expression goes, ‘You only have one chance to make a first impression.’ For many Canadians, the next few weeks will provide that opportunity to make that first impression.” 

— Former Conservative MP Bernard Trottier 

Trottier adds: “We can expect a barrage of media targeted towards people who are not political insiders. So, although there is no election called at this time, we can expect to see high volumes of paid and unpaid media, both pro- and anti-Poilievre, across traditional and social channels. It might feel like a bit much for, say, Toronto Blue Jays fans, who would rather turn their attention to other matters. As Poilievre indicated, he will not be performing any kind of grand pivot now that he has secured the leadership. Channeling Margaret Thatcher, the gentleman ‘is not for turning.’ For better or worse, Canadians can look forward to competing visions on the direction of the country.” 

Solstice Insights & Analytics Team 

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